Predictions for 2020

I kind of swiped this idea from the team over at Legal Insurrection. It seems like the kind of thing that one does in January. So, here are my predictions for events that we will see in 2020. No promises, this is a new one for me!

Let’s get going!

National Predictions

1. Let’s start with an easy one, Trump is reelected in 2020. Ok, that isn’t actually going to be easy. He has a fight on his hands, and while any other president would coast to reelection in the same circumstance, this is Trump. He has to beat the media too. While I think he will, it is going to be dicey. Remember, these days everyone lies to the pollsters, so never take them at face value. So, despite a dismal collection being fielded by the DNC, no matter who winds up as the nominee, the media will play them as the second coming of Obama. This open two-front fight is not new, but it has seldom been so blatant and rabid.
2. Next, Joe Biden will be the nominee, but it will be a brokered convention. As predictions go, this is a bit out there, so bear with me. The DNC wants Biden, if only because they dream of a third-term Obama. Biden isn’t that, but they can convince themselves he is, so they want him. But the fringe they are pandering to (and making their base) won’t stand for it. They want someone left of Sanders. So, while I don’t see Sanders doing it, he will perform stronger in the primary season this time. I expect they will enter the convention with Biden, Warren, and Sanders still in it, with no clear winner. This will lead to a Biden/Warren ticket. Sanders is still too far out there for the powers that be to accept, and everyone knows he only joined the party so he could run in their framework.
3. The DNC will ask both Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton to run, both will refuse. Obama will be the open ask – people will know. Clinton the quiet one, after all, she lost to Trump already. Clinton will give it some real consideration, but eventually say no after getting her ego boost from the party. Obama will flat out refuse, but expect to see a lot more of her in the next few years, and I think she might run in 2024.
4. Virginia will see violence over gun confiscations. Not necessarily from the Molon Labe crowd. This will be played, predictably, as a sign of civil war and white supremacy (regardless of who is involved) by the media. And played as ‘the boogaloo’ by idiots on Facebook. It won’t be either one, of course.
5. I don’t like this, but I really do think that we will see more violence across groups nationally in 2020. This isn’t limited to any one set of adversaries either. The New York ‘Muslim Safety Patrol’ will see more attacks by gangs, Jews will continue to be attacked, and people everywhere will keep being assholes.

Illinois Predictions

1. Pot sales will be huge…for a quarter. Then people will realize three things – it’s cheaper on the street; since it isn’t illegal to own, they have no risk; and they aren’t on camera on the street. Then sales will die on the vine. I have seen photos of receipts with tax rates in the 35% range. That is absurd, and will likely drive people right back to the dealers…as predicted.
2. The exodus will continue. As taxes go up, and services go down, people will get fed up and vote with their feet. Illinois will see another year of lost population, and won’t care enough to fix the problems.
3. In the same vein, the remaining residents won’t fix it at the ballot box. Illinois voters are a stupid, stupid bunch. They complain, endlessly, about the entrenched politicians, yet do nothing to remove them. Nothing. This will continue, with all the usual grifters and scum being reelected.
4. Chicago will see another 500 homicide year. As the police situation degrades in the city, the reality is that it’s easier and easier to get away with murder. Like the voters, the residents of Chicago won’t help themselves. They protest the cops, then complain when the cops do as asked and leave. There are endless cries for justice, but no one is willing to speak up to provide justice. It’s an endless spiral.
5. No championships.
6. I think we will see another tax increase from the state & Cook county. If not in 2020, then definitely in 2021.

International Predictions

1. We are going to see a lot more conflict in Iraq, and will edge closer to war with Iran. Their proxies will be the cause, and Iran will continue to take credit for it all.
2. Brexit will finally happen. When that does, the EU will see all kinds of pressure to normalize relations with the UK, as they were one of the two economic engines in the EU. Simply put, Germany cannot finance it all themselves. Scotland will try to use Brexit to further their own separatist movement.
3. Chinese expansion in Africa will run into islamist expansion in Africa, and that will result in a shooting war, even as China tries to keep it quiet.

Final Thoughts

So, let’s hope most of that is wrong. The problem is, we keep seeing things that no one expected or wanted. Our media has become openly and proudly partisan, and that will only fuel the fires. Somehow, the idea developed that if you call yourself a ‘journalist’, you are shielded from all criticism – both in the media and outside the media. This is nonsense. A journalist is only as valuable as their work, so when the work is garbage, so should be their reputation.

A great example of this is Ralph Northam. As the governor of Virginia, we should hold him to a higher bar than the average citizen. So when his photo in either blackface or KKK robes was released, of course, nothing happened. That is wrong. Had he been a Republican, the outcry would never have ended. As a Democrat, he is not going to be accountable for his actions. This sort of behavior is a core part of why we distrust the media.

The one thing I would ask of us all is that we seek better information. From actually reading source documents to listening to different opinions, we need to be better informed. I would advise no one comment on laws they haven’t read. They are all public, you know. There is no reason to not view the source before commenting. Maybe understand that there is a reason for why people seek non-mainstream media.

To the media, who won’t see this unless they are trying to attack me, stop. Stop being so blatantly partisan. Just stop trying to destroy people while protecting the powerful. Stop. Hold the powerful to account, regardless of party. If an action is bad when Trump does it, it was when Obama did it, and vice versa. It is infuriating that the most radical conservative position these days is that the rules need to apply to everyone.

Let’s all try to be better this year. We can be better friends, spouses, family, coworkers, etc. All it takes is choosing kindness, which is even free! Making your piece of the world better might just make the rest of it better too.